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Heat not Burn could gain from new FDA strategy

There’s been a lot of excitement among American vapers about Friday’s announcement from the FDA. The big news was that the deadline for submitting paperwork under the Deeming Regulations, which was set to wipe out 99% of all vapour products next November, has now been delayed for four years. But there was a lot more to the FDA’s announcement than that, and some of it is also important for Heat not Burn.

In his speech on Friday morning, FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb outlined a new anti-smoking strategy for his agency. For the first time the FDA has publicly admitted that there’s a spectrum of risk for nicotine products, with traditional cigarettes at one end, nicotine replacement therapy at the other, and a whole range of products like e-cigs and HnB in between (in reality, very close to the NRT end). This moves the agency away from seeing reduced-risk products as another kind of cigarettes to acknowledging them as a potential solution.

As well as pushing back the deadline for Pre Market Tobacco Authorization submissions, Gottlieb says he’s also planning to make it easier to submit them. Up to now the process has been a complete nightmare. According to the FDA an application takes about 500 hours to complete and costs around $300,000 per product. Those who’ve actually done it say it takes thousands of hours and costs well over a million. Worst of all, it’s hard to tell exactly what should be in it. The FDA guidance document is 500 pages of impenetrable legal guff that nobody can understand, so for most businesses filling out the paperwork is guesswork – and, after spending all that time and money, there’s no guarantee the application will be accepted.

Expensive rules, unclear outcomes

So far we only know of one PMTA application for an HnB product; in March, PMI submitted one for their popular iQOS. That’s now under review by the FDA, although it could take more than a year for it to be approved or declined. The industry will be watching closely; if iQOS is approved it opens the door for rivals like BAT’s Glo, although iQOS will have a useful head start.

The PMTA process has been worrying a lot of people, because it hasn’t been clear how strict the FDA were planning to be. Up to now they seem to have looked at new nicotine products as a menace that should be kept off the market, and that was obviously bad news for HnB. There was a real risk that they’d want to avoid the “mistake” they’d made by letting e-cigarettes get onto the market, and take a hard line from the beginning.

Gottlieb’s new direction could change that. The FDA now seems interested in having healthier options available, and encouraging smokers to switch to them. Although the companies making HnB products are being careful so far not to call them reduced risk, there’s no doubt that they are. If the FDA has been keeping up with the science, they know that too.

Bad science strikes again

It has to be said that the FDA’s strategy has a huge problem. From what Gottlieb said, it seems that they want to cut the amount of nicotine in cigarettes as a way to force smokers towards alternatives. However, it’s not so clear why this should work. After all, we have evidence from when something similar was tried before.

Tobacco controllers still love to rant about how the industry “lied” to smokers when they released light cigarettes in the 80s and 90s. What they don’t mention is that it was tobacco control who pressured the industry to do that. The result, of course, was that people simply smoked more and took deeper puffs; they ended up inhaling exactly the same amount of nicotine, but a lot more toxic smoke.

Now the FDA seem to think they can try the same trick again but get a different result, which just begs for comments about the definition of insanity. To be fair they might get a different result this time, because now there are real alternatives to smoking, but it’s more likely they’ll just create a massive black market in smuggled high-nicotine cigarettes.

What will decide that is how effective the alternatives are at delivering nicotine. If the FDA’s brave new cigarettes aren’t very satisfying, but neither are the safer choices, most people will just either smoke more or call their dealer and ask when the next batch of proper Marlboro are due in from Mexico. On the other hand, if cigarettes don’t give enough of a nicotine hit but other products do, then people are a lot more likely to switch.

Vape or heat?

So far that’s been the big problem with e-cigs; unless you have decent kit and know how to use it, the nicotine hit isn’t as satisfying as a proper cigarette. Experienced vapers can completely turn that around, but for a beginner – especially somewhere like the EU, with its stupid 20mg/ml cap on liquid strengths – it can be a struggle to get as much nicotine as you’re used to.

Now a leading tobacco harm reduction researcher has compared a HnB product – iQOS – against both cigarettes and e-cigs. The results are interesting, especially in the context of Gottlieb’s plan.

Dr Konstantinos Farsalinos, a cardiologist at the Onassis Cardiac Surgery Centre who’s well known for his research into the safety of vaping, compared the amount of nicotine delivered by a tobacco cigarette, several e-cigs ranging from cigalikes to an advanced mod, and the iQOS. What he found was that while the iQOS still isn’t as efficient as a cigarette, but it comes very close – and it’s well ahead of the sort of e-cig people usually try when they think about switching.

If Gottlieb does push ahead with trying to cut the nicotine in cigarettes, a lot of US smokers are going to be very unhappy. Some of them – those who live near Canada or Mexico, for example – will probably just nip over the border to do their shopping. But the rest might be tempted by a product that has a familiar cigarette company brand, is distributed through the same retailers and delivers almost as much nicotine as their cigarettes did. This could be just what it takes to help Heat not Burn become huge in the USA.

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Heat not Burn takes off in South Korea

When someone mentions Korea most of us think of the mad regime in the North. That’s a pity, because South Korea is much nicer – and, if you’re a fan of Heat not Burn, it’s also a lot more interesting right now. South Korea is now an expanding market for the leading HnB products, so much so that a local company is planning to join in.

Unlike its bizarre Stalinist neighbour South Korea is an advanced industrial country, with a relatively low smoking rate of 19.9% – slightly lower than Germany, but slightly higher than Japan. It also has tough anti-smoking laws that make it illegal to light up in almost any public place. The government is pretty serious about persuading its citizens not to smoke.

Unfortunately it has a couple of serious problems. The first, and probably the biggest, is the army. The country has the world’s sixth-largest standing army and second-largest reserves; in total it can mobilise 3.7 million troops, and all South Korean men have to do an obligatory 21 months of military service. This is a great way to defend against insane, highly militarised neighbours, but not so good if you’re trying to stub out smoking.

Soldiers smoke, often because it gives you something to do while you wait for the army to decide what’s happening to you next, and lots of Koreans pick up the habit while they’re in uniform. That 19.9% smoking rate? It breaks down into around 5% of South Korean women, but about 40% of men.

At the same time, vaping hasn’t really taken off in Korea the way it has in the UK or USA. It is possible to buy e-cigarettes, and there are some local manufacturers, but it hasn’t made a big dent in the smoking figures. Now, major tobacco companies are wondering if Heat not Burn can do a better job.

Here comes iQOS

HnB products are very new to the South Korean market; Philip Morris released its popular iQOS device on 27 May, and now has two stores in Seoul (if you like Korean music you’ll be pleased to hear that one of them is in Gangnam). They’re also selling the iQOS through the CU convenience store chain, which has about 3,000 branches across the country.

Philip Morris say they don’t have any firm sales figures yet but are seeing “growing popularity”. That sounds about right; an employee at a CU store says, “They have been all sold out every day.” It wouldn’t be surprising if this is the case because iQOS continues to do very well in Japan; it took a 0.8% share of the cigarette market in the first quarter of 2016, but had climbed to 4.5% by the end of the year. PMI say it’s now at around 7%.

With the iQOS apparently doing well in South Korea, British American Tobacco are aiming to introduce their rival Glo device in August. Glo is a similar format to iQOS and BAT Korea say they’ll be selling it at a slightly lower price. If they can get the device and its NeoStiks into enough shops it’s likely to catch on too.

A home-grown rival?

The global tobacco companies can’t expect to have it all their own way, though. HnB devices are consumer electronics, and when it comes to developing and manufacturing these South Korea is one of the world’s giants. The country that’s home to companies like Samsung and LG isn’t likely to let imported electronics flood its home market, is it?

No, it’s not. Clearly impressed at the popularity of the new technology, one of South Korea’s own tobacco companies is already looking at moving into the market. KT&G (it stands for “Korea Tomorrow & Global”, but used to be “Korea Tobacco  Ginseng”) is the country’s largest tobacco manufacturer. It’s a major player locally, with 62% of South Korea’s cigarette market, and its Esse superslim brand is also popular in Russia and Eastern Europe.

Now KT&G want to release a HnB product to take on Glo and iQOS – and they’re not hanging around. According to the company they’ve been watching the heated tobacco trend since 2012 and want to have their own device on the market by the end of this year.

That’s quite an ambition. If they can pull it off, they’ll be in on the ground floor with PMI and BAT. The multinationals will have a bit of a head start, but not enough to let them build up real dominance, and that’s likely to be balanced by consumers’ familiarity with KT&G brands.

The real question is what will the product be like? Unfortunately KT&G haven’t released any details yet, but if they think they can get in on the shelves by the end of the year – even as a trial product – then its design must already be fairly advanced. A HnB device isn’t something you can just throw together; PMI have invested more than $3 billion in iQOS so far, and BAT can’t have spent much less on Glo.
iQOS is the latest version of a basic concept first trialled in 1998, as Accord, then redeveloped in 2007 as Heatbar.

 

So will it happen?

If KT&G are going to have any chance at all of getting a product on the market by December, it would need to be pretty much ready to go into production by this point. That means it would need to have been tested already, and probably tried by a good number of consumers to get their feedback on it. If this has been done, it’s been done unusually discreetly – we can’t find any details or images of a KT&G device anywhere.

Of course, South Korean companies are very good at keeping innovations quiet until they’re ready to start marketing them, so it’s very possible that KT&G really do have a product ready to launch over the next few months. If they do, it will be interesting to see how it compares to
iQOS, Glo and other existing devices. Hopefully we’ll know more about it – and whether it will be marketed outside South Korea – soon.