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Positive forecast for heated tobacco

Positive forecast for heated tobaccoReading Time: 3 minutes

Here at Heat Not Burn UK, we have always championed any method used to quit smoking traditional cigarettes, whether that be heated tobacco, vaping, nicotine pouches, etc. So, we were very happy to see a positive forecast for heated tobacco on the excellent Talking Retail website.

In their original article, they focus on both smoking and smoking alternatives. However, we will focus solely on their predictions for heated tobacco going forward into 2025 and beyond.

Although vapes have hogged the headlines recently, they are not the only alternative to smoking for people who want to give up but aren’t ready to ditch nicotine completely.

The heated tobacco category continues to evolve and grow in popularity as customers look for an alternative but familiar tobacco experience with devices that heat tobacco instead of burning it, drastically reducing the amount of harmful chemicals produced.

The category is currently worth £105m in traditional retail and independent and symbol stores in the UK have seen heated tobacco sales of £35m in the last year.

The category is expected to be worth about a quarter of a billion pounds by 2025, so there’s no doubt it provides a big opportunity for retailers, especially those with a competitive range and strong product knowledge.

They then go on to explain how some devices are tremendous value for money, including quotes from JTI (Japan Tobacco International) who manufacture the Ploom X device (that we sell right here on our website.)

Mark McGuinness, marketing director at JTI UK, says: “Our Ploom brand has gone from strength to strength over the past few years, and device sales have doubled compared with last year, while Evo tobacco stick sales have tripled year on year.

“The cost-of-living crisis is fuelling the growth in lower-priced nicotine alternatives, and 70% of heated tobacco consumers are switching from value tobacco lines.

“The competitively priced Ploom X Advanced bundle offers value for money within the category. As well as being more cost-effective for consumers, heated tobacco sticks also offer higher margins to retailers when sold at RRP.

“Existing adult smokers could also save up to £3,600 a year with Ploom. This is based on comparing the average cost of 20 cigarettes (RRP £14.54) with 20 Evo tobacco sticks (RRP £4.50) per day.”

They then go on to talk about variants and the crucial role that they play in helping smokers to switch away from traditional smoking.

Flavours are also helping to drive the heated tobacco sector forwards.

Sales of tobacco flavoured variants account for 50% of all refill sales in traditional retail, with Menthol flavours accounting for 38%.

Manufacturer Philip Morris believes providing adult smokers with a full range of alternatives means they have a better chance of leaving cigarettes behind for good. “We are committed to phasing out cigarettes,” says Duncan Cunningham, director of external affairs. “Within 10 to 15 years we could stop selling cigarettes in the UK with the right measures in place.

“However, while vaping enjoys government support as a valuable tool to help smokers quit, concerns over marketing to minors and environmental impacts have recently been highlighted by the growth of disposable vapes. E-cigarettes, though successful for some, don’t work for all smokers.

“Data shows that vaping has begun to stall, with less than a quarter of adult smokers sticking with it in 2023.

“To truly enable smokers to break free from cigarettes, a diverse range of smoke-free alternatives should be embraced. These options, including nicotine pouches and non-combusting tobacco products such as heated tobacco, offer adult smokers a more appealing and better choice than continuing to smoke.

“Other countries provide evidence of the effectiveness of smoke-free alternatives. In Sweden, smokeless tobacco products have significantly reduced smoking rates (some of the lowest in Europe), while Japan’s introduction of heated tobacco products led to a sharp decline in smoking.

They then finish with some info from PMI (the manufacturer of the very popular IQOS which we are also selling) about the reduced risk profile of heated tobacco and it being on a par with vaping.

“We believe heated tobacco can significantly accelerate the decline of smoking rates in the UK. Philip Morris International has spent more than $10bn developing IQOS—the largest heated tobacco device globally – which has a similar reduced-risk profile to vaping. It emits on average 95% lower levels of harmful chemicals compared to cigarettes.”

The whole article is excellent and is well worth a read so please feel free to read it right here.


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